Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynasty

By Carrie Kahn, Catherine Osborn

Updated Friday, October 23, 2026 • 5:01 AM EDT

Heard on Morning Edition

RIO DE JANEIRO — Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil could prolong the career of a political giant—or usher in a new generation of a political dynasty.

Voter energy has surged ahead of the runoff, with rallies for each candidate drawing tens of thousands of people in major cities and packing plazas and university campuses nationwide

Many polls show a race within the margin of error between left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round of voting on Oct. 4and currently leads polls, though somesurveys show the gap narrowingin recent days.

A Bolsonaro victory would extend his family's influence over the Brazilian right, which in previous decades was dominated by more moderate figures. A close ally of President Trump, Flávio Bolsonaro would, if elected, reinforce a broader rightward shift across much of Latin America, where conservative candidates have made gains in recent elections.

"We have a new feeling of urgency," said 40-year-old corporate event planner Camila Sixel, referring to Bolsonaro's first-place finish earlier in the month. Sixel has been campaigning for Lula in Rio de Janeiro.

"I'm really worried about the future for women, the fight against racism and social inequality, and the protection of vulnerable people," Sixel said.

Lula, 80, is running for his fourth nonconsecutive term and says this will be his last election. He has been at the center of the Brazilian left for a generation, first taking office in 2003 and falling out of favor with many voters in the 2010s when he was embroiled in a corruption scandal and jailed. His convictions were later annulled on procedural grounds.

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Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro to win the presidency in 2022. The elder Bolsonaro is under house arrest while serving his sentence for plotting to overturn that election result, but his son, who is 45, has pledged to pardon him if elected.

The younger Bolsonaro's other proposals include trimming the size of the Brazilian state to boost economic growth. Those economic proposals became one of many points of contention in the election's first televised debate last Sunday night.

"Have you seen how things are going in Argentina, and are you going to keep saying that Milei is your model?" asked Lula, referring to Argentine President Javier Milei's austerity program and the country's rising poverty rate.

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, promised an aggressive crackdown on organized crime, telling voters that "I will give you back the streets so that you can walk in safety."

It's a message that's attractive to many Brazilians, who rank crime as a top election issue. "Security is awful," said Rio de Janeiro prison worker and Bolsonaro voter Marli Alves, 63. "You can be at an outdoor event and someone sweeps through and robs you of everything."

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Beyond campaign rallies, the final days of Brazil's election have also seen protests outside Meta's São Paulo offices. Lula's campaign has accused Meta of unfairly restricting his content, potentially giving his rival, an advantage — a claim the company denies. Meta's Oversight board and a group of U.N. experts have also raised concerns about the handling of political content.

Meta acknowledged technical issues in handling election-related content in Brazil, but said in a statement, "We do not suppress content to harm one side, nor do we give preferential treatment to any side."

In a race this tight, small factors — from distortions on social media to voter turnout on Election Day—could make a difference.

And while polls have for months suggested a fairly even division of the country into Lula and Bolsonaro supporters, a survey released Wednesday found that 10% of voters were still open to changing their minds, leaving space for a last-minute surprise.

Transcript

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Brazil's leftist president faces a tough reelection fight on Sunday. Polls say the race is too close to call. To win, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will need to draw in millions who sat out the first round of voting. Lula has been revamping his message and playing catch-up on social media. NPR's Carrie Kahn reports.

(CROSSTALK)

CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: In a sea of red shirts and hats, Lula faithful filled several blocks of Copacabana's beachfront boulevard this past weekend.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

KAHN: It's the 11th-hour surge of support the longtime leftist leader needs after his disappointing second-place finish behind Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of the far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula fan Bruno Alves says it's not too late. After all, Lula only lost by two percentage points, he says.

BRUNO ALVES: We would need 3 million votes to be able to at least turn it around. So that's what we're hoping for.

KAHN: Lula's deficit is probably a lot higher. To pull off a fourth presidential win, Lula needs to persuade millions who sat out the first round to get out and vote.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED MC: (Speaking Portuguese).

KAHN: "We need to leave here with energy," shouts the MC at Lula's support rally. "It's going to be a rough week ahead," he warns as he urges one last song for the crowd from a Lula longtime campaign staple, 84-year-old Caetano Veloso.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

CAETANO VELOSO: (Singing in Portuguese).

KAHN: While the crowd clearly relishes singing along with the Brazilian legend, it's not the youthful vibe many say Lula, a fellow octogenarian, needs in the waning days of the contest. So he's been trying his hand at social media.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA: (Speaking Portuguese).

KAHN: "Come on, folks. Let's hit the streets. Let's talk to people," Lula says in his first-ever selfie shot two weeks ago. While one critic described it as an awkward grandpa moment, it was a big switch in campaigning for the incumbent, who says he doesn't even own a cellphone. With the help of some popular influencers and others, Lula is now making noise.

(SOUNDBITE OF POTS BANGING)

KAHN: Supporters banged pots and pans out windows in cities all over Brazil last week, posting videos online like this one from Rio.

(SOUNDBITE OF POTS BANGING)

KAHN: Both sides are making noise in Brazil's courts too. Lula has accused Meta of unfairly suppressing his post, a claim the social media giant denies. He asked Brazil's electoral court to intervene. Meanwhile, Flavio Bolsonaro asked the justices to disqualify Lula, charging he's been disseminating fake news. Recent polls show Lula has gained some momentum. It's unclear, though, if it will be enough.

NATALIA MENDONCA: The problem is not the format. The message is the problem.

KAHN: Natalia Mendonca is a political marketing specialist. She says Lula has been more focused on his past successes, while Bolsonaro talks about tangible issues like tackling crime and the high cost of living.

MENDONCA: They don't have the message to move people to feel passion about it. The algorithm won't save the campaign.

KAHN: Successful social-media algorithms have been mastered by the right in Brazil, she says, which has long helped it build a larger online following and turn out big crowds on the streets.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED RALLYGOERS #1: (Chanting in Portuguese).

KAHN: Like this huge gathering last weekend filling blocks of Sao Paolo's broad Paulista Avenue, Bolsonaro is also benefiting from a global wave of anti-incumbency sentiment. But Brazilian political scientist Guilherme Casaroes says Lula could still pull off a win.

GUILHERME CASAROES: Lula has gone from overconfidence to urgency. And in Brazilian politics, urgency is the thing that mobilizes voters the most.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED RALLYGOERS #2: (Chanting) Ole, ole, ole, ola, Lula, Lula.

KAHN: Twenty-year-old law student Ana Lis Viana says she was so sure Lula was going to win in the first round. She didn't even vote. This time, she will.

ANA LIS VIANA: Bolsonaro? Never. Never. Not the father and not the son.

KAHN: Carrie Kahn, NPR News, Rio de Janeiro.